Ace in the (Buch)Holz

On Memorial Day 2010, I attended my first ever Red Sox game.  A Rochester, NY native, and coupled with being a 14 year old, I never had many opportunities to travel to Boston. But that year my mom finally gave in to my requests, and purchased tickets to the Memorial Day game against the Kansas City Royals. When we arrived at the stadium, the sun shined over Yawkey Way and I was in absolute awe.  I had never seen anything like it, including that many Red Sox fans in one place.  

I was ecstatic to find our seats along the first base line, with a beautiful view of the green monster. That day, Jon Lester was pitching, and during warm ups, new star pitcher Clay Buchholz was signing autographs.  Apprehensive and intimidated by the fans who seemed to know what they were doing, my mom urged me to get as close as I could, and eventually Clay spotted me and I threw my program down towards him.  He signed a picture of Dustin Pedroia and gave me a little smirk (Clay's picture was on the inside cover of the program, but I was happy nonetheless). That was it, I was hooked.  I framed the picture when I got home and admired it as any fourteen year old boy could.

Clay Buchholz during the Memorial
Day game in his breakout 2010 season.

It doesn't seem too long ago that Clay Buchholz was dominating opposing batters and was selected to his second All-Star game in 2013.  Buchholz looked like the best pitcher in baseball up until June, when he was sidelined with a neck injury, but seemed poised to return to form after the All-Star break.  Unfortunately, Buchholz hasn't regained his early 2013 form, and has become a major question mark for the ace-less Red Sox.

Stand Their Ground

After losing out on Jon Lester to the Chicago Cubs, the Red Sox rebuilt their rotation around three solid middle of the rotation pitchers in Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson.  As it stands right now, the Red Sox rotation is composed of those three, Buchholz, and Joe Kelly.  In the minor leagues, the Sox have top prospect Henry Owens, Edwin Escobar, Matt Barnes, and Anthony Ranaudo all looking to crack the big league roster.  

The most obvious candidate to pitch on opening day is Rick Porcello, but even he comes with concerns.  The right hander finished 2014 with a career best 3.43 ERA, but has never led a staff, and it remains to be seen how he will hold up in Fenway Park.  The 26-year old has always been a ground ball pitcher, and the struggles he endured early in his career can be contributed to the lack of quality defense with the Detroit Tigers.

Newly acquired pitcher Rick Porcello has the potential to lead the Red Sox staff in 2015.

With the Red Sox, Porcello is backed by perennial Gold Glove second baseman Dustin Pedroia, youngster Xander Bogaerts, and Gold Glove candidate Pablo Sandoval and Mike Napoli.  However, some believe Porcello's 2014 was just a blip on the radar, and he'll never be able to truly lead a staff. Now entering his prime, Porcello can build upon his breakout 2014 and use his new shiny toys around the diamond to lead the Red Sox staff.

As for the other new additions to the Red Sox rotation, none represent a true ace, but all can provide solid seasons in which the team won't need to be so reliant on the bullpen.  Joe Kelly, whom the Red Sox traded John Lackey for, looks primed to have a breakout season for the Red Sox.

Since 2012, Kelly has thrown 300 innings and allowed less than 30 home runs.  Toss that in with a 95 MPH fast ball and an elite ground ball rate (55 percent), and the Red Sox have something to look forward to with Kelly.  However, because of his age and inexperience, he'll likely start the season at the end of the Sox' rotation.

A common theme among the new Red Sox starters is their ability to get ground outs.  The other acquisitions, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson, have ground ball rates at 48% and 56%, respectively. Miley and Masterson have the ability to pitch about 200 innings, and limit damage from the hard hitting offenses of the AL East (referring to you, Toronto).

Top Red Sox prospect Henry Owens has the potential to be an ace, but not in 2015.

As for the minor leagues, Henry Owens, Edwin Escobar, Matt Barnes, and Anthony Ranaudo all figure to see action in the big leagues at some point.  With Justin Masterson coming off of an injury riddled 2014 season, at least one spot in the starting rotation should be open for a certain amount of time.  Although if Masterson can regain his 2013 form, he's in line for the job of staff ace.  Out of the group of youngsters, Matt Barnes and Anthony Ranaudo seem to be the first among call ups, as they enjoyed reasonable success late in 2014.  Top prospects Henry Owens and Edwin Escobar will most likely refine their game in Triple-A before enjoying time in the big leagues in September.

Patching the Holz

Now, back to Buchholz.  If the Red Sox want to compete for the AL East crown, an ace must emerge out of the current group of starters.  Clay Buchholz has shown the Red Sox that he can lead their staff, and will look to do so in 2015.  If the former All-Star wants to turn his career around, he needs to get healthy and address what went wrong in 2014.

At the end of the 2014 season, Buchholz had minor surgery to repair the meniscus in his right knee. Red Sox General Manager Ben Cherington stated that, "It's not something that prevents him from pitching," and it is not believed that this contributed to his woeful 2014 season.

Red Sox brass and coaches were stumped by the sudden ineptitude of Buchholz.  It appeared that he had lost his ability to get a major league batter out.  Through his first 50 innings, he had already given up 75 hits, and it only got worse.  Many believe Buchholz' struggles were actually mental, rather than physical.  His mechanics were the same, his demeanor was the same, and his routine was the same.  There was no rational explanation for his struggles.

When looking at Buchholz' seasons next to each other, one year is great, then the next year is sub-par.  If there was ever a more inconsistent pitcher, Clay Buchholz should never meet him.  With a solid pitching staff around him, maybe Buchholz can regain his confidence and just go out and pitch. 2015 is a contract year for Buchholz, and most veteran pitchers, regardless of consistency and skill, seem to get paid no matter where they go.

With extra motivation to sign a new, long term contract next offseason and a solid pitching core around him, Clay Buchholz seems poised to have a bounceback 2015 season, and, hopefully make that autograph something worth bragging about.